Indonesia will strive to grab at least 60 percent of India’s palm oil markets, which have shrunk to around 47 percent in recent times, with Malaysia holding the rest, a senior official at its largest association said. palm trade.
“Trade relations with India were affected due to the sudden export ban imposed on our country in April, but I think now we have a better policy and exports will return to normal. India is one of the largest buyers of Indonesian palm oil and we believe our market share will return to levels enjoyed sooner rather than later,” Fadhil Hasan, Head of the Oil Association Trade and Promotion Division, told Business. of Indonesian Palm (GAPKI). Flaw.
Hasan was in Agra to attend the annual Globoil Conference, which is a gathering of the major players in the domestic and international edible oil trade and industry.
India imports about 13-13.5 million tons of edible oils each year, of which about 8-8.5 million tons (about 63 percent) is palm oil.
Of this, 8-8.5 million tonnes of palm oil, almost 45-47 percent in recent times, came from Indonesia and the rest from neighboring Malaysia.
Hasan said that the radical change of first banning exports and then lifting them first partially and then completely had an impact on the healthy trade relations between the two nations, but now things are getting back to normal.
“Going forward, we (Indonesia) can guarantee that such policy changes that happened in April and May will not happen again,” Hasan said.
India’s edible oil markets were put on edge in April when Indonesia, which is a big supplier of palm oil to the country, suddenly banned exports to rein in its domestic prices.
There were fears that monthly supplies of around 300,000-325,000 tonnes of palm oil could suddenly stop in India, dramatically increasing already high domestic prices.
A few months later, Indonesia suddenly lifted the ban, first partially and then completely. In between, there were mixed signals as to whether or not the ban would be overturned.
However, since then things have changed a lot and global edible oil markets have weakened due to falling demand and Indonesia has also not only lifted the export ban but now has large pipeline stocks.
This threatens to drop global palm oil prices sharply in the coming months, but Hasan believes the drop might not be too severe as domestic production in Indonesia will be lower than last year.
“Look at calendar year 2021, Indonesia produced about 46.9 million tons of crude palm oil, which will drop to 45 million tons this year due to lower area expansion and decreased productivity. Palm oil production in neighboring Malaysia will also be lower than last year. These two factors will keep the markets supported and although there may be minor changes in the middle, prices will remain supported,” Hasan said.
He said that according to his estimate, crude palm oil prices will rise to $1,000-$1,100 per tonne and stabilize there as supplies are not expected to increase significantly.
On India’s National Oil Palm Mission which aims to produce 2.8-3.0 million tons of palm oil locally by 2025-30, Hasan said the Mission is remarkable but the benefits should not outweigh the cost. because the cost of producing palm oil in India will be much higher than Indonesia or Malaysia.
“We would also like the Indian government to keep the tariffs at their current zero levels and would also work without the government to ensure that the zero export tax continues even after October to facilitate trade between the two countries,” Hasan said.
Meanwhile, in a related development, palm oil producer associations from India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka today formed the Asian Palm Oil Alliance (APOA) to work around the world to ensure that palm oil of palm is recognized as a high quality product. , cheap and healthy vegetable oil and change the negative perception about palm oil.
Together, the Asian markets account for nearly 40 percent of global palm oil demand, with India being the largest importer of palm oil in the Asian region.
The world consumes about 240 million tons of edible oils annually, of which nearly 80 million tons (34 percent) is palm oil. Of this, almost 50 million tons come from Indonesia and around 20 million tons from neighboring Malaysia.